Notes From The Beauty Contest

Notes From The Beauty Contest

The NFTBC Digest (16 August 2026)

Earnings (BMW, CBRS, OBCK), News and Links (BRKR, PRCT, PTC, REGN, WPP)

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Crashkolnikov
Aug 16, 2026
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Friends of NFTBC

In a slight break with convention, The Digest is packed with earnings this week so I’m circulating a preview to the wider NFTBC mailing list - for the benefit of those who may be interested.

Here are a few of the highlights:

  • BMW: following my prior best guess of a return to the 8-10% strategic automotive margin corridor by 2029, BMW are now officially communicating a target “by the beginning” of the 2030s - suggesting I was off by about a year. In either case, if they execute (and, breaking with consensus, I think they probably will), in several years EPS could be potentially multiples higher than the 2026 number.

  • CBRS: expectations for the next couple of years are already very high, but I’ve been wondering lately if they’re high enough. The trail of breadcrumbs is growing longer. While the evidence is not yet conclusive, it is becoming harder to dismiss.

  • OBCK: points for management credibility - 1) the business is now re-accelerating following the Q1 low ✅ and 2) they’ve signed a deal to divest the last ‘non-core’ business ✅ (in both cases as they said they would)

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